Other economic indicators
Keep abreast of key economic indicators.
American economy
Updated February 11, 2026
Productivity gains could explain strong growth
The US economy continues to show remarkable resilience, but the interpretation of data from the end of 2025 remains partially obscured by publication delays related to the shutdown of public services. The US Federal Reserve highlights growth that remained solid in Q4 2025, driven by household demand and business investment—particularly in equipment and artificial intelligence—along with a better balance between labor supply and demand and productivity gains that contributed to the expansion.
On the productivity front, data indicate an annualized increase in non‑farm productivity of 4.9% in Q3 2025, accompanied by a decline in unit labor costs (−1.9%). This supports the view that the economy is producing more without a proportional acceleration in employment, which was still slowing in January 2026.
The impact on your business
- U.S. demand remains a potential source of support for Canadian exports (goods and services), even amid trade tensions and political uncertainty.
- A robust U.S. economy can also support cross‑border investment and projects geared toward the US market.
- The promising outlook for productivity in the United States adds pressure on Canadian companies to focus on their own productivity, at the risk of falling behind their competitors.
Proven strategies
- If you are concerned about customs tariffs, visit Canada Tariff Finder , a free online tool that enables Canadian exporters to find out the tariffs applicable to a specific product in a foreign market.
- If you're thinking of expanding your business outside of Canada or diversifying your market beyond the U.S.: 4 tips for successfully exporting your services
Oil market
Updated February 11, 2026
rude oil prices remain low
Oil prices remain volatile, caught between geopolitical risks and uncertain global demand. Although prices remain fairly low by historical standards, key indicators show increases of around 10–15% since the beginning of 2026. In mid‑February, WTI stood at around US$65 per barrel, while European Brent was close to US$70 per barrel.
OPEC members, which had resumed production in 2025, suspended their planned increases in the first quarter of 2026. The organization expects demand for its crude oil to slow in the second quarter. Production in member countries already fell in January by 439,000 barrels per day compared with December 2025, due to reductions in Kazakhstan, Russia, and Venezuela.
Crude oil market conditions remain shaky, but a global crude oil surplus is still anticipated, which should keep prices relatively low for the rest of the year.
The impact on your business
- Fluctuations in oil prices can have a direct impact on transportation and logistics costs. Higher oil prices can increase fuel costs, which may lead to higher production costs for goods and services. For now, the increase remains modest and prices are low.
- SMEs in energy‑intensive sectors, such as manufacturing and agriculture, are more sensitive to movements in the oil market. If you operate in these sectors or do significant business with them, you may feel the impact of changes more quickly.
- Higher oil prices can reduce consumers’ disposable income, leading to lower spending on discretionary goods and services. Conversely, lower prices at the pump will have a positive impact on SMEs in sectors linked to discretionary consumption.
Proven strategies
- The price of energy products can be a determining factor in your cost structure. They also have a general impact on consumers’ budgets. A sound cost management and pricing strategy can set you apart from your competitors.
Exchange rates
Updated February 11, 2026
The loonie is strengthening, but nothing to get too excited about
The Canadian dollar has strengthened since its lows in the fall. The loonie was trading at around US$0.70 in early November but climbed to nearly US$0.74 by the end of January.
The most recent appreciation of the Canadian dollar against the greenback is due more to the latter’s weak performance than to fundamental factors providing more structural support for the Canadian currency. The appreciation of gold and other precious metals has recently provided some support for the loonie, but the interest rate gap between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada continues to limit foreign‑exchange gains.
The impact on your business
- In general, the impact of Canadian dollar fluctuations on SMEs will depend on the nature of your business and its reliance on imports versus exports.
- A weak Canadian dollar supports exports. If, on the other hand, you import inputs or machinery, your operating costs could ease in the short term.
Proven strategies
- It is important for SMEs to manage currency risk and consider strategies to mitigate potential negative effects.. Find out how to manage foreign exchange risk when selling abroad.
Interest rates
Updated February 11, 2026
The Bank of Canada will remain on hold for a little while
The last change to the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy was a 25‑basis‑point cut at the end of October 2025. The Governing Council of the Canadian central bank emphasized in its latest announcement that monetary policy alone could not counteract the slowdown currently affecting the Canadian economy. The central bank reaffirmed this point in early 2026.
Inflation remains under control in Canada, but core inflation measures are showing signs of a slight upturn. However, at 2.25%, the policy rate sits at the lower end of the estimated neutral rate range (that is, a level that neither stimulates nor restrains economic growth).
The policy rate has declined by a cumulative 275 basis points since the recent peak of this cycle in June 2024. Effective rates for households have fallen by 160 basis points since then, while those for businesses have declined by only about 210 basis points.
The impact on your business
- Past interest rate cuts have provided some financial relief to households and businesses, which bodes well for the economy as a whole.
- We anticipate a stable policy rate for at least the first half of 2026. Rate cuts at the end of 2025 will continue to filter through the economy, but only gradually, as elevated international risks are slowing the transmission of monetary policy through the various channels of the economy.
- Businesses must remain patient, as the recovery in demand will be gradual and modest. Persistent sector‑specific challenges remain.
Proven strategies
- Keep a close eye on interest rate trends to optimize your business's financial situation. The commercial loan calculator will help you determine the interest associated with your loan.
- With rates likely at their short‑term floor and expected to remain stable for several months, now is a good time to launch investment projects and lock in a rate. Use our financial tools to calculate your company's debt-to-equity ratio, as well as other important ratios that banks take into account when evaluating loan applications.
Residential market
Updated February 11, 2026
The market is maintaining a good pace nationally
Activity remains steady in the residential resale market, but the number of recorded transactions remains modest. Transaction volumes slowed in December 2025 compared with November. There was a slight increase in the weighted average home price, but this remained modest as the MLS Home Price Index continued to decline.
Approximately one million households are due to renew their mortgages in 2026, often at rates much higher than their initial pandemic‑era rates. CMHC expects mortgage delinquencies (payments 90 days or more past due) to accelerate through the end of the year.
The impact on your business
- The residential market is still expected to be sluggish but growing in 2026. Companies in the construction and furniture industries will be among the first to feel the effects of market fluctuations.
- Even if your business is not directly dependent on the residential sector, trends in this market affect all businesses. Housing is the largest budget item for consumers, and affordability challenges also weigh heavily on executives striving to attract and retain the talent needed for their operations.
Proven strategies
SME confidence
Updated February 11, 2026
2026: slower, but more confident
After a dip in the fall of 2025, SME optimism rebounded in January 2026. The CFIB Business Barometer’s long‑term index stands at 59.5 (close to its historical average), while the short‑term index rose to 52.4. However, insufficient demand remains a major obstacle for a significant share of SMEs.
The same sentiment is reflected in BDC’s latest survey of Canadian business investment intentions. Business leaders remain cautious as challenges persist, but signs of stabilization in economic conditions are emerging. Predictability is increasing as businesses face the very same headwinds as last year, to which they have already started to adapt.
The impact on your business
- Business confidence plays a crucial role in strategic decision‑making and the growth potential of SMEs. When confidence is high, SMEs are more likely to invest in new projects, technology, and hiring.
- It is therefore important for SMEs to monitor economic indicators in order to make informed decisions.
Proven strategies
- As confidence improves among Canadian businesses, make sure you also maintain a vision aligned with the external environment and closely monitor your financial ratios, or you may fall behind later on. Plan your strategy accordingly.